DUBLIN — A new round of diplomacy on the conflict in Syria will begin on Thursday afternoon when Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy, hosts an unusual three-way meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov.
The session, which is being held on the margins of a meeting on European security, comes amid reports of heightened activity at Syria’s chemical weapons sites and signs that Russia may be shifting its position on a political transition in Syria.
“Secretary Clinton has accepted an invitation by U.N. Special Envoy Brahimi for a trilateral meeting on Syria this afternoon with Mr. Brahimi and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov,” a senior State Department official said in a terse announcement Thursday morning.
This is not the first time that American and Russian consultations have spurred hopes of a possible breakthrough. In June, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Lavrov and the U.N. envoy on the Syria crisis at the time, former United Nations Security General Kofi Annan, appeared to be close to an agreement that a transitional government should be established and that President Bashar al-Assad should leave power.
But that seeming understanding quickly broke down with Americans officials complaining privately that the Russian side had pulled back from the deal. A major sticking point, it later emerged, was the American insistence that the United Nations Security Council authorize steps to pressure Mr. Assad if he refused to go along under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter, which could be used to authorize tougher economic sanctions and, in theory, the use of force.
It remains to be seen if the new round of negotiations will be more successful.
On the one hand, the military situation on the ground appears to be shifting in the rebels favor. Some Russian officials reportedly no longer believe that Mr. Assad will succeed in holding on to power and may have a new interest in working out arrangements for a transition. The changing battlefield, some experts say, may have led to a softening of the Russian position.
A senior Turkish official said that after Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently met in Istanbul that Moscow was “softening” its “political tone” and would look for ways of getting Mr. Assad to relinquish power.
But it was also possible that Mr. Lavrov had, in effect, merely agreed to meet so that Russia could maintain influence over the discussions on Syria and find out what exactly Mr. Brahimi was prepared to propose.
The Russian foreign minister and Mrs. Clinton are in Dublin for a conference of the Organization for Security and Economic Cooperation in Europe, which begins on Thursday.
With the rebels making gains on the ground, American officials have been trying to ensure that military developments do not outpace political arrangements for a possible transition.
American officials have hinted that the United States would upgrade relations with the opposition, possibly to formal recognition, if the coalition had made progress on a political structure by the time of a meeting of the so-called Friends of Syria in Morocco.
“Now that there is a new opposition formed, we are going to be doing what we can to support that opposition,” Mrs. Clinton said at a news conference in Brussels on Wednesday, adding that at the Marrakesh meeting “we will explore with like-minded countries what we can do to” end this conflict. The State Department announced on Wednesday that Mrs. Clinton would lead the United States delegation at the meeting.
Separately, the United States is moving toward designating one Syrian opposition group, Al Nusra Front, as an international terrorist organization, American officials said. The group is seen by experts as affiliated with Al Qaeda. The step would be synchronized with the emerging strategy toward the opposition and would aim to isolate radical foes of the Assad government.
